22 July 2021

MY COVID FORECAST (JUL TO SEP 2021)


Given the dynamics of infectious diseases,
Given the CoViD disease parameters,
Given that only 72% of B.C. residents have received one CoViD vaccination dose,
Given that only 50% of B.C. residents have received both CoViD vaccination doses,
Given that about 15% of B.C. residents are no longer abiding by CoViD rules,
Given the emergence of the CoViD Delta variant,
Given the potential for new CoViD variants,
Given the experiences in the U.K., France, Italy, the U.S., ...

Here is my forecast: Before the end of September 2021 ...

1: B.C. will be experiencing a fourth wave of CoViD infections, with daily new cases exceeding 350. (Subjective probability = 90%)
2: B.C. universities will initially open in-class course contents delivery but will move online by early October. (SP = 90%)
3: B.C. will move back to Step 2 in its Restart Plan (SP = 70%)
4: B.C. will move back to Step 1 in its Restart Plan (SP = 50%)

I hope that I am wrong.